Obama Leads by 9 in Ohio, McCain Edges in Missouri

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Suffolk University Poll Shows McCain Votes driven by Factors External to the Candidate

    BOSTON, Oct. 20 /-USNewswire/ -- With just over two weeks left before the presidential election, voters in the key state of Ohio are giving the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 9-point lead (51 percent - 42 percent) over the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

    In Missouri, McCain led by 1 percent (45 percent to 44 percent) statewide. He also led the bellwether test of Platte County, Mo.

    "If Ohio goes for Obama, it could be the tipping point that will usher him into the White House," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "At least today, the probability of an Ohio win is supported by the high-single-digit lead in the statewide poll coupled with the Perry County bellwether, which showed Obama leading by 4 percent."

    In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with statewide Suffolk polls, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

    What drives McCain voters is not always the man himself, but other factors, such as a vote against Obama or support for Palin.

    Obama voters were more excited by their candidate, but some were voting against President George W. Bush:

     OH Voters for McCain MO Voters for McCain

    Factors Percent Percent

    Vote for McCain 49 66

    Vote for Palin 8 4

    Vote against Obama 15 21

     OH voter for Obama MO Voters for Obama

     Percent Percent

    Vote for Obama 71 73

    Vote against McCain 10 6

    Vote against Bush 12 14

    "Obama's strength is two-fold: More people are driven to vote for Obama because of Obama; in addition, any anti-Obama McCain voters are offset by anti-Bush Obama voters who may not be motivated by Obama, but are motivated against George Bush," said Paleologos.

    "Joe the Plumber," a spectator who asked a question at an Obama rally, dominated the last presidential debate and the media coverage thereafter. However, in both battleground states, the impact on the presidential race is minimal.

    In Ohio, 68 percent of respondents said they recognized "Joe the Plumber," but only 6 percent said that Joe's story will make them more likely to vote McCain; 4 percent were more likely to vote for Obama; and 85 percent were not affected. A similar finding was recorded in Missouri, where 80 percent had heard of the presidential plumber; 8 percent were more likely to vote McCain; 3 percent more likely to vote Obama; and 86 percent not affected by his story.

    The Suffolk University Ohio poll was conducted Thursday, Oct. 16, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The Missouri poll was conducted Friday, Oct. 17, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The margin of error on each study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from both surveys were likely voters from Ohio and Missouri.

    Separate from the statewide poll, there were 312 respondents from the Ohio bellwether of Perry County and 204 respondents from the Missouri bellwether of Platte County. Both sets of statewide and bellwether marginals as well as cross-tabulation data from both states will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site - http://www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Monday, Oct. 20, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

    Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.
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